Global trends in fibre production, consumption and prices, July-August 2002

published in Issue 100, July 2002   Report price: Euro 275.00; US$ 365.00

World demand for man-made fibres fell in 2001 as the global economic recovery stalled. Output dropped by 1.4% to 27.9 mn tons following a 7.2% rise in 2000. Synthetic fibre production fell for the first time ever?by 1.1%. Less unusual was a 5.4% fall in cellulosics production. However, this was disappointing as it followed a rise, albeit surprising, of 6.8% in 2000.

The market for natural fibres has fared little better. In the 2001/02 season cotton output reached record levels but consumption remained depressed. As a result, inventories remained high and the cotton price fell to its lowest level for almost 30 years. However, the market is picking up. Low prices are stimulating demand while discouraging plantings. Prices are predicted to rise as stocks fall.

The market for wool, however, remains depressed as the sharp recovery in prices at the beginning of 2002 runs out of steam. Demand growth looks set to slow?except in China and the EU. Current prices are holding up, but only because of concerns over output. The Australian clip has been affected by drought and falling sheep numbers as farmers are tempted by high sheep meat prices.

In the case of man-made fibres, problems of overcapacity look set to continue as new entrants try to increase their market share. Although many producers are making cutbacks as they recognise that past capacity growth can no longer be sustained, Chinese capacity continues to expand. In the developed world, the decline in man-made fibre production could accelerate?especially with the prospect of trade liberalisation under the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

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