Global trends in fibre prices, production and consumption, July-August 2005

24 pages, published in Issue 118, July-August 2005   Report price: Euro 395.00; US$ 520.00

World fibre production grew by 5.8% in 2004, spurred by a 7.8% increase in man-made fibre production. The increase reflected strong growth in China and to a lesser extent in South Asia and South-East Asia. Synthetics accounted for most of the growth, especially polyester, although cellulosics grew faster.

Output of natural fibres rose by only 2.9%. As a result, their share fell to 40.5%?the lowest ever recorded. Cotton demand rose by 3.0% while wool consumption was up by only 0.8%. In both cases, growth was encouraged by lower prices.

The cotton price fell from a high of 76.80 cents/lb in November 2003 to a low of 48.60 cents/lb in December 2004, reflecting fears of high . Although there was some firming over the subsequent few months, the average price for 2004/05 as a whole was only 52 cents/lb. For 2005/06, however, the price will rise by 25.0% to 65 cents/lb as stocks diminish. Demand will rise by only 2.3%, according to the EIU?much slower than the 9.3% increase in 2004/05, despite higher usage in China and South Asia. But output will fall by 8.0%, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), as lower prices have deterred plantings, and favourable growing conditions in 2004/05 are unlikely to be repeated. Nonetheless, this will still be the second highest crop on record.

Wool prices have been kept down by competition from man-made fibres and healthy stock levels. Although stocks have fallen, they represent a comfortable proportion of annual output. Currently, global demand for wool fibre is being sustained largely by consumption in China. Elsewhere, it is being depressed by the restructuring of the textile industries in industrialised countries. The outlook is for some firming of prices in 2006, despite only a marginal rise in global demand during 2005/06. Although stocks are expected to fall slightly, supply and demand will be more or less in balance in 2005/06.

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