Editorial: Post-Quota Scenarios in Textiles and Clothing: China Is Not the Only Winner

After almost two years of ?quota-free? trade, some interesting trends are beginning to emerge.

Most studies conducted before December 31, 2004, predicted that the two main winners from quota elimination would be China and India, followed by Pakistan. The main losers were expected to be high wage firms in North America and Western Europe which had survived because quotas had protected their markets from the full impact of low cost competition.

However, the losers were also expected to include low cost countries which had benefited before 2005 from special access to the markets of high cost countries through duty or quota concessions. Countries predicted to be particularly at risk were exporters in small developing nations located far from the major Western markets?especially those which had benefited from quota-free access to those markets in the past.

So far, predictions that China would be a clear winner have come to fruition as exports continue to surge and foreign investment in the Chinese textile and clothing industry continues apace. During the first seven months of 2006 China?s textile and clothing exports increased by 23.4% to US$83.40 bn. Clothing exports grew by 26.7% to US$50.63 bn while textile shipments rose by 18.7% to US$32.77 bn.

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• World Textiles and Clothing after Quota Elimination: Winners and Losers, (November-December 2004)
• Trade in Textiles and Clothing: The Way Forward from 2005, (July-August 2004 )

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