World textile and apparel trade and production trends, September-October 2000

The global man-made fibre industry continued to strengthen in 1999. Although cellulosics fell by 5.4%, synthetics rose by 5.3%. Natural fibres lost market share as cotton output rose by only 2.1% and wool production fell. Cotton and wool prices, however, are picking up. US textile output declined in the first half of 2000 in the face of strong import growth. Apparel, hit also by weak exports, fared even worse. Prices continued to come under pressure, although profits at the major US companies were up by 43% in early 2000. In the EU, textile and apparel output fell as the trade deficit worsened in 1999. Asian countries are once again making inroads and EU exports remain weak. However, trade with Eastern Europe remains buoyant.

In Japan, output continues to contract - despite a recovery in consumer demand - as imports from China soar. But exports are picking up as demand in the surrounding region recovers. In China, domestic demand is strong and exports surged by 42% in the first half of 2000. Moreover, further gains are likely when China joins the WTO. In Hong Kong the recovery is fragile, despite strong economic growth. But production has started to rise again as exports to the USA improve. South Korea is also doing better as consumer confidence returns and exports grow. In Taiwan, too, exports have turned around and output is growing. But Taiwanese textiles are doing less well in the US market.

Asean countries are making up for ground lost during the Asian crisis. Sales in the US market are doing especially well, and growth compares with increases being achieved by Mexico and the Caribbean. In India, recovery is under way, especially in textiles, following currency depreciation. Devaluation has also helped Pakistan, although investment is needed to maintain growth. New investment, meanwhile, has helped to boost exports from Sri Lanka. But exports from Bangladesh remain below target.

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