Global trends in fibre prices, production and consumption, September-October 2007

26 pages, published in Issue 131, September-October 2007   Report price: Euro 395.00; US$ 520.00

World fibre production rose by 4.3% in 2006, resulting from a 5.0% rise in cotton fibre production. The increase was driven mainly by growth in China. Synthetics accounted for most of the growth in manmade fibres, especially polyester, although cellulosics grew faster at 5.7%.

Output of natural fibres rose by 4.8% in 2006. As a result, the gains of the previous year were maintained and the share of natural fibres rose further to 42.0%. The main cause of the growth in natural fibre production was a 5.0% rise in cotton demand. By contrast, wool consumption fell, as a result of higher prices. The cotton price rose from its low of 48.60 cents/lb in December 2004 to reach 70 cents/lb by October 2007. For the 2006/07 crop year as a whole (August 1, 2006-July 31, 2007), the average price was 6.2% higher than in the previous year, at 61 cents/lb. Furthermore, an increase of 20.0%, to 71 cents/lb, is predicted for 2007/08 as stocks diminish. Demand, however, will rise by only 3.2%, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). This is slower than the 4.6% increase recorded for 2006/07, despite higher usage in China and South Asia. Output will fall, as alternative crops become more profitable, thus discouraging the planting of cotton.

Wool prices have risen, although they were constrained by competition from man-made fibres. Stocks have fallen although the stock position is not a cause for concern. Global demand for wool fibre is being sustained largely by consumption in China. Elsewhere, it is being depressed by the restructuring of the textile industries in industrialised countries. The outlook is for some stability of prices in 2007/08. Stocks are expected to fall a little further from current levels and demand will be marginally in excess of supply in 2007/08.

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• Global trends in fibre prices, production and consumption, September-October 2006, (September-October 2006)

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