Global trends in fibre production, consumption and prices, January-February 2003

World demand for man-made fibres rose strongly in 2002. Output was up by 5.9% to 29.3 mn tons after a 1.4% setback in 2001. However, the rise reflected strong growth in China. Synthetic fibres accounted for most of the growth, especially polyester and acrylic, although even rayon picked up by 2.7%.

Output of natural fibres, by contrast, fell by 10.3% and their share of global fibre production fell from 45% to 41%. Cotton output was particularly hard hit (down 10.8% to 19.2 mn tons) due to poor harvests and low cotton prices?which discouraged plantings. The wool clip also fell, by a less dramatic 1.5%, as sheep numbers continued to decline. On the positive side, cotton prices have recovered considerably since their 19-year low of 35 cents per lb in October 2001. By February 2003 they had exceeded 58 cents per lb, their highest level for two years. But further rises are constrained by uncertainty over Iraq. For 2003/04 higher prices, and hence better returns, are leading to higher plantings. But demand, boosted by Chinese textile export growth, should grow faster, leading to falling stocks and further price rises.

Wool prices have risen sharply because of expected steep falls in the Australian clip combined with a pick-up in retail demand in the major consuming markets. High prices will continue into 2003/04 but further rises will be limited by weak growth in demand and an increase in supply as the Australian wool clip recovers. The only growth in wool demand among the major consumers in 2003/04 will be in China.

Wool also faces competition from man-mades. But in early 2003 manmade fibre producers were having to raise prices, in spite of slack demand, to offset higher raw material costs.

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